At the end of last year, Poland’s population stood at 37.5 million, down by more than 147,000 from a year earlier, according to Statistics Poland (GUS).
Nearly 252,000 babies were born in 2024, about 20,000 fewer than the previous year, and almost three times fewer than during the demographic boom of the 1980s.
The office said that Poland’s fertility rate remained far below the 2.1 children per woman needed to replace generations.
The figure has been under 1.5 since 1997, a level demographers say leads to irreversible changes in population age structure.
Meanwhile, about 409,000 people died in 2024, roughly the same number as in 2023.
GUS said Poland’s median age rose to over 43 years, more than seven years higher than in 2000, reflecting both longer life expectancy and persistently low fertility.
The share of Poles aged 65 and older rose by 175,000 in 2024 to more than 7.7 million, or 20.6 percent of the population.
Meanwhile, children under 15 numbered around 5.5 million, with an "old-age index" of 141 elderly people for every 100 children—up from 133 a year earlier.
GUS said the long-term effect will be a shrinking labour force and increasing pressure on the pension and welfare systems.
Marriage and family data also pointed to demographic challenges.
About 135,000 marriages were registered in 2024, nearly 10,000 fewer than the year before, while divorces rose slightly to more than 57,000.
For the second year in a row, Poland recorded a positive net migration balance, with 19,500 immigrants and 10,200 emigrants, yielding a net gain of 9,300.
Still, migration was not enough to offset the population decline.
Looking ahead, GUS projects that by 2060 Poland’s population will fall to just under 31 million.
The decline will be driven mainly by rising mortality as the large generations born in the 1980s reach old age, the office said.
By then, the median age will surpass 50.
Births are expected to remain relatively low—at about 225,000 in 2060—even if the fertility rate improves, because the number of women of childbearing age will be much smaller.
The demographic outlook remains difficult, the statistics office said, warning that Poland faces an accelerated pace of population aging alongside a steadily shrinking workforce.
(gs)
Source: IAR, PAP